David Dodds - The Perfect Draft

Note: This is the second of a 5 part series. The principles in this article covers eight and ten team drafts. The other articles will cover 12 teams, 14 teams, WCOFF scoring and how to apply this to an auction draft.

Aaaah....The Perfect Draft. We have all dreamt of having it. Some of us have experienced it. And for those that have....we want it again and again. And why not? You surely did not subscribe to this website to be average. You want to dominate. You want to have such a good roster that others salivate over who you have. You want them all to come to you when discussing trades. And in this article I am going to break down how to have that perfect draft.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.

All Players Have Value
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team.

Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
You may believe someone will be the 4th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you...believe rookie WRs are always bad...that drafting anyone over 30 is a sure sign he will get injured, etc then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your team. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value every single round.

So what is value then? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. I have provided my own Top 250 list here (based on my projections) that has been sorted by position. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.

Let's have the perfect 10-team draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. This article assumes a 10 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK.

In a 12 team draft, there clearly is pressure to grab the quality RBs before they are gone. That pressure has mostly disappeared in a 10 team draft. In an 8-team league, there is essentially no pressure on any of the positions. This point is important, because in these smaller drafts, it's much more critical to target high risk/high reward players. The price of failing is usually substantially reduced because of the smaller roster sizes. You can miss on a few players and not be dead in the water. With these thoughts in mind, here is the blueprint to have the Perfect Draft in a ten team (or smaller) league.

Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 60 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 60 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 8th round (80 picks). If you are still using this list in the 10th round, grab a beer and call the engraver during the draft.

Creating the Perfect 60 List. Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the Footballguys Top 200 with ADP to create a single Top 60 draft list. Here is how I create this list.

For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.

For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.

Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.

Doing this for the Top 250 list yields these Top 60 players (ranked from 1st to 60). *** Note this is a generic list. You can get a tailored list by entering your scoring criteria into the VBD or Draft Dominator applications:

Value	ADP	Revised Value	Rank	Pos	Player	Team/Bye
1	1	1	1	RB1	Larry Johnson	KC/3
2	3	2.5	2	RB2	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD/3
3	2	3	3	RB3	Shaun Alexander	Sea/5
4	4	4	4	RB4	Tiki Barber	NYG/4
5	5	5	5	RB5	Steven Jackson	StL/7
7	8	7.5	6	RB6	Ronnie Brown	Mia/8
6	9	7.5	7	RB7	Rudi Johnson	Cin/5
9	6	9	8	RB8	Edgerrin James	Ari/9
8	11	9.5	9	RB9	Carnell Williams	TB/4
10	10	10	10	RB10	Lamont Jordan	Oak/3
11	13	12	11	WR1	Steve Smith	Car/9
13	14	13.5	12	RB11	Brian Westbrook	Phi/9
12	17	14.5	13	WR2	Torry Holt	StL/7
16	16	16	14	RB12	Willis McGahee	Buf/8
14	18	16	15	WR3	Chad Johnson	Cin/5
18	12	18	16	QB1	Peyton Manning	Ind/6
17	19	18	17	WR4	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari/9
19	21	20	18	RB13	Reggie Bush	NO/7
15	25	20	19	RB14	Willie Parker	Pit/4
22	23	22.5	20	WR5	Randy Moss	Oak/3
21	24	22.5	21	RB15	Kevin Jones	Det/8
23	22	23	22	WR6	Anquan Boldin	Ari/9
20	26	23	23	TE1	Antonio Gates	SD/3
24	20	24	24	WR7	Marvin Harrison	Ind/6
26	15	26	25	WR8	Terrell Owens	Dal/3
29	29	29	26	RB16	Julius Jones	Dal/3
30	30	30	27	WR9	Chris Chambers	Mia/8
25	35	30	28	RB17	Reuben Droughns	Cle/6
31	28	31	29	RB18	Chester Taylor	Min/6
28	34	31	30	RB19	Warrick Dunn	Atl/5
32	32	32	31	WR10	Reggie Wayne	Ind/6
33	31	33	32	RB20	Jamal Lewis	Bal/7
27	41	34	33	RB21	De'shaun Foster	Car/9
34	36	35	34	WR11	Roy Williams	Det/8
36	33	36	35	WR12	Hines Ward	Pit/4
37	7	37	36	RB22	Clinton Portis	Was/8
40	39	40	37	WR13	Plaxico Burress	NYG/4
38	43	40.5	38	QB2	Tom Brady	NE/6
41	37	41	39	WR14	Santana Moss	Was/8
39	44	41.5	40	WR15	Donald Driver	GB/6
43	42	43	41	WR16	Darrell Jackson	Sea/5
47	38	47	42	RB23	Corey Dillon	NE/6
42	52	47	43	TE2	Todd Heap	Bal/7
35	59	47	44	RB24	Frank Gore	SF/7
46	50	48	45	WR17	Derrick Mason	Bal/7
45	51	48	46	RB25	Mike Bell	Den/4
44	55	49.5	47	WR18	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin/5
48	53	50.5	48	QB3	Donovan McNabb	Phi/9
51	47	51	49	TE3	Jeremy Shockey	NYG/4
52	48	52	50	WR19	Javon Walker	Den/4
54	46	54	51	QB4	Matt Hasselbeck	Sea/5
56	49	56	52	RB26	Joseph Addai	Ind/6
53	60	56.5	53	RB27	Thomas Jones	Chi/7
59	54	59	54	TE4	Tony Gonzalez	KC/3
49	69	59	55	RB28	Dominic Rhodes	Ind/6
60	61	60.5	56	RB29	Fred Taylor	Jac/6
61	58	61	57	WR20	Joey Galloway	TB/4
57	65	61	58	RB30	Deuce McAllister	NO/7
63	45	63	59	WR21	Andre Johnson	Hou/5
58	68	63	60	RB31	Ahman Green	GB/6

The First 60 Players:

Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted. But use some common sense while you do this. This list includes 31 RBs, so you need to make sure you secure at least 2 or 3 backs off this list (as that position will have dried up considerably).

I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after these Top 60 players are gone.

I would limit myself to just 1 QB and 1 TE from this list unless the extra QB or TE is drafted in the 8th round or later (Trade value alone makes the selection worthwhile).

After the Top 60 - Assessment Phase

The transition from the Top 60 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your anlysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:

How many backs did you secure. The average owner should have 3.1. Do you have 4 or more including one in the 1st round? Is this a position of strength for your team?

Did you draft a QB or TE (The average owner should have 0.4 QBs and 0.4 TEs) yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until very late in the draft. If you have not drafted these positions yet, do not panic. Good ones will be available late in your 10-team draft.

Assess your bye week situation. If three or more of your first five players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week to be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against SF, Ten, Oak and NO should all yield good results during these weeks.

As an example, Let's say you landed this team after 7 rounds:

3. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/5
18. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/5
23. WR Randy Moss, Oak/3
38. RB De'shaun Foster, Car/9
43. WR Donald Driver, GB/6
58. RB Thomas Jones, Chi/7
63. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/5

By landing 3 RBs and 4 WRs (including a top RB), you are well on your way to a perfect darft. Quick analysis yields these weaknesses at present: QB (none taken), TE (none taken), Week 5 is off to a rough start as your first two selections share that bye week.

Unless significant value presents itself, my next few rounds plan would be:

Fill out roster needs at QB and TE

Grab a player sliding at RB or WR that is exceptional value

Note the departure from looking for value at all cost here. WR may represent value at your next pick, but this selected player may never see the field with the stars you have already drafted. It is generally better to fill out your key roster spots instead of amassing a lot of value that you may not be able to use. So use your head. Are you able to select a QB or TE that represents at least fair value (ADP and value numbers are in line with the selection)? If not, then by all means select another quality RB or WR.

Moving to Fill Positional Needs

Quarterbacks

Simply put, this is one of the deepest fields of quarterbacks I have ever seen. Fifteen quarterbacks are "expected" to be drafted in the first 100 picks.

Let me repeat that so it sinks in. One half of the teams will take their SECOND quarterback by the end of round 10.

Let me say this the easiest way I can - don't be one of those teams. The fantasy points differential between QB5 and QB15 is not enough (in most leagues) to justify spending two picks in the first ten rounds on quarterbacks.

With history as our guide, we know the top QBs are almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require one starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first three or four are gone.

The plan is simple at the quarterback position this year. Unless you grab a top star at value from the Top 60 list above, wait until 8 or 9 quarterbacks are drafted before taking your first. In a 10 team league this strategy will plop you firmly into the sweet spot of quarterback value.

Here are the quality fantasy QBs that I expect should be available after 8-9 have been drafted. I will refer to this group as the "sweet spot" at the position:

Michael Vick (Value = 64, ADP = 86)

Jake Plummer, Den (Value = 81, ADP = 92)

Trent Green, KC (Value = 95, ADP = 87)

Brett Favre, GB (Value = 90, ADP = 115)

Aaron Brooks, Oak (Value = 103, ADP = 113)

Kurt Warner, Ari (Value = 111, ADP = 81)

My personal selection here would be to target Brett Favre. He usually can be drafted after everyone has selected their first QB. He represents excellent value in leagues that don't have huge penalties for interceptions.

The biggest risk/reward pick is likely Kurt Warner. With the weapons he has at wide receiver, he could easily be a top 5 quarterback for the games he plays this season. If you can handcuff him with a reasonable backup at QB, you should get excellent production from this position all season. The obvious downside with selecting Warner is his ability to stay healthy.

After you have selected your starting quarterback within this "sweet spot" look to target either Jon Kitna or Philip Rivers as your backup. Both are running high-powered offenses that could yield excellent fantasy production. And both can be drafted around the 13-14th round.

The upside regarding Jon Kitna is he now is running the Mike Martz offense in Detroit. That same offense has yielded great QB play in St. Louis for years (Warner MVP, Bulger, even lofty stats for the QBs in relief). Martz likes to pass to setup more passing. He is a quarterback's best friend. Make no mistake about it, the QB in this offense will put up huge fantasy statistics. He represents outstanding value drafted anywhere near his ADP of 134 (13th/14th round).

Philip Rivers is an unknown commodity. But the offense isn't. Drew Brees put up lofty numbers the last two years in San Diego throwing to Gates, Tomlinson and McCardell. Everyone else is back. The praise for Rivers out of the San Diego training camp is glowing. He has looked great in the preseason games. He is a very smart player who understands defenses very well. But he is unknown. And because he has never played, his stock is at an all-time low. Grab him now while the risk/reward is the best it will ever be. He also represents outstanding value drafted anywhere near his ADP of 125 (12th/13th round).

One last note on QBs. With the departure of TD vulture TJ Duckett, Michael Vick could see a lot of goal line action this year. Don't reach for him, but he represents very good value around his ADP of 86 (8th/9th round).

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. But if you followed the Top 60 plan from above, you should have a nice stable of backs on your roster.

But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year (outside of the Top 60 picks):

Tatum Bell, Den (Value = 50, ADP = 76) - First Ron Dayne and now Mike Bell are the starters. The reason stated by HC Shanahan is that Tatum wears down as the game goes on. But what if that were to change? What if Tatum looked good just once in a 4th quarter? I don't believe for a minute that Mike Shanahan actually thinks Mike Bell offers more upside than Tatum Bell as the starting tailback. We have all seen the Bell explosive runs. But whatever reason, Bell has not been given much of a chance to be the #1 this year. That fact though has kept his value very low. Even if Tatum never wins the starting job, he will likely put up enough stats to justify a low ADP of 76. I feel that is his floor. His ceiling? If he were to win the starting job sometime this year, he could be the steal of the draft. Target him in the 7th/8th round.

Laurence Maroney, NE (Value = 66, ADP = 77) - This is all about whether Maroney will get his chance this year. Corey Dillon has looked a step slow to me for years now. If Dillon were to get injured or benched, Maroney's stock would explode. He represents a nice swing for the fences in the eighth round. I have seen enough in the preseason to KNOW this kid is MONEY.

Wali Lundy, Hou (Value = 113, ADP = 171) - Domanick Davis is having serious knee issues. He might not even see the field this year. That opens the door to Antowain Smith, Wali Lundy, and Vernand Morency. With this team not in serious contention for the playoffs, I am souring on them using Antowain Smith. Rookie Wali Lundy has been impressive in the preseason and is still flying below the radar in a lot of leagues. He represents solid value around the 13th round.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 60 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft.

Here are the WRs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Donald Driver, GB (Value = 39, ADP = 44) - He is the one stable piece (besides Favre) in Green Bay. Expect him to get a lot of balls again. He could challenge the top WRs in the league for most receptions. Target him in the 5th round or later.

TJ Housmandzadeh, Cin (Value = 44, ADP = 55) - Chad Johnson gets all the press, but TJ is a fine receiver in his own right. Target him in the 6th round or later.

Eddie Kennison, KC (Value = 55, ADP = 85) - I am amazed every year how everyone writes this guy off. He has represented solid value for many years in a row now. Target him in the 8th or 9th round for exceptional value.

Laveranues Coles, NYJ (Value = 67, ADP = 91) - Yes I know he plays for the Jets. And no I do not expect big things from this offense this year. But who else is going to catch the ball? Coles will get a lot of receptions by default. Target him in the 9th round.

Muhsin Muhammad, Chi (Value = 69, ADP = 94) - Another quality receiver playing for a sub-par offense. But at this price there is no downside. Scoop him up in the 9th round.

Terry Glenn (Value = 73, ADP = 95) - I won't be shocked at all to see Terry Glenn have a HUGE year. With Terrell Owens in the game, Glenn will be facing single coverage all year. Seeing how Glenn has ALWAYS faced double teams and the best defenders and still put up stats....well you see where this is going. Factor in the possibility of a TO blowup or lingering hamstring issues and Glenn offers exceptional value this year. He also knows the playbook better than Owens and has an outstanding relationship with Bledsoe. Target Glenn in the 9th round.

Troy Williamson (Value = 87, ADP = 158) - Just pencil this guy on your roster right now. Unless you are drafting against other Footballguys, Williamson represents the homerun for pennies this season. Koren Robinson is going to be suspended for the year. He already had two strikes in the drug program and was pulled over for a DUI. Forget his day in court. The team will likely cut him before it even gets to that. Williamson, by default vaults to the #1 WR in Minnesota. Don't let this one get away. Grab him and laugh anytime after the 11th round.

Ernest Wilford (Value = 89, ADP = 127) - Here is another guy that is flying below the radar. He is very slow. But having watched him play a lot last year, he finds a way to get separation. He is a very good in the redzone. I think he has an excellent chance to be the main receiver for the Jaguars this season. Target him in the 12th round or later.

Samie Parker, KC (Value = 105, ADP = 184) - Yes, someone other than Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez have value on the Chiefs. Samie represents excellent value in the 15th or later.

Cedric Wilson, Pit (Value = 122, ADP = 237) - He emerged last year and now gets no respect. The Steelers drafted a highly touted rookie (Santonio Holmes), but I fully expect Cedric to keep him on the pine this year. Target Wilson in the 18th round or later.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap, grab valuable "core" receivers in the Top 60 picks and then add depth by plucking the Wrs that fall through the cracks on draft day.

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates is in a class by himself. But with an average draft slot at 26, he should be avoided. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.

Go ahead and scratch off these names: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, Jason Witten, Randy McMichael and Chris Cooley. Only Todd Heap represents value this year.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft.

It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)

2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)

2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)

2002 -- 4th (91 points), 12th (63 points) = 28 points difference (1.75 per game)

2001 -- 4th (93 points), 12th (75 points) = 18 points difference (1.13 per game)

5 YR AVG -- 4th (98.0 points), 12th (69.8 points) = 28.2 points difference (1.76 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

This year there is one tight end that I expect to have on nearly every one of my teams this season. That tight end is New England's Ben Watson.

Ben Watson, NE (Value = 98, ADP = 110) is in a perfect situation to vault into elite status this year. The New England receiving core has been thinned due to the departure of David Givens to free agency. The Patriots defense looks to be significantly weaker which should yield to more shootouts. The Patriots' Corey Dillon appears to have lost a step and the team may have trouble running the ball in 2006. Enter Ben Watson, the strong, fast and athletic tight end that was drafted at the bottom of round 1 in 2005. Ben showed that he could take over a game in the first round of the playoffs last season. He led all Patriots with 10 targets, 91 receiving yards, and the longest reception of the game. With an ADP of nearly 110, Ben can be drafted around the 11th rounds of most drafts.

Here are the other TEs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Dallas Clark, Ind (Value = 130, ADP = 136) in the 113th round or later.

Jermaine Wiggins, Min (Value = 151, ADP = 181) in the 16th round or later.

Place Kickers

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 15 this season. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 15. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

I only see one PK that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Matt Stover, Bal (Value = 174, ADP = 205) in the 19th round or later.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken.

I suggest you wait until round 14 to assess what to do about this position. If Chicago, Carolina or Pittsburgh are on the board when you pick in round 14, grab one, and be done with this position. If those three teams are gone, I would wait until six to eight defenses have been drafted and then see where the value is.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

A winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing San Francisco, Buffalo, Oakland or Houston, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against sub-par competition. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

Putting It All Together

Use the Top 60 List to grab as much "core" talent as possible

Assess your strengths and weaknesses after the Top 60 picks are gone. Look to fill in your roster as well as adding more RB and WR depth should significant value be present.

QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Look to grab your first QB after 8 or 9 have been taken. Add Philip Rivers or Jon Kitna late.

Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. In start 3 WR leagues, allocate 8 roster spots for wide receivers.

Sluff TE and target Ben Watson in the 11th round.

Sluff defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in round 14. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense. Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.

Sluff kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second on your list in round 15. If kickers go early, take the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Note: I know there is more than one way to have a great draft. I have seen teams take players like Manning and Chad Johnson with their first two picks and run away with titles by picking undervalued players the rest of the way. I am not going to state that this article is the ONLY way to be successful in your twelve team draft. It's simply one way to end up with a very competitive team.