I know a lot of people are drafting within the next couple of days so I thought I would just start typing what I am thinking as I approach my own drafts.

As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me publish projections, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab. Yes we are talking pre-VBD days where I had a Cheatsheet and about 20 players highlighted that I positively wanted on my team. I did not care that every player had value. I wanted these guys. Yes I am a VBD convert now and I take the projections I create at Footballguys.com very seriously, but...

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.

Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head. And as Joe and I have set out to do all year long, we want you to know what we know. So here goes...

Quarterbacks

Although I love Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb and Carson Palmer as much as the next guy, I am convinced that you should wait until the middle to late rounds to grab a QB. The quarterback field is extremely deep this year. Veterans like Brett Favre (ADP 111), Trent Green (ADP 88), Kurt Warner (ADP 81), Drew Bledsoe (ADP 78) and Aaron Brooks (ADP 114) can be drafted with extremely low picks despite running teams that should throw the ball a lot in 2006. Jon Kitna (ADP 134) is an after-thought despite him running a Mike Martz offense in Detroit. Even someone like Billy Volek (or Kerry Collins) could yield great QB numbers as the Titans look like they will be playing from behind in most games this season.

I know it's just the preseason, but Jay Cutler looks like a better QB than Jake Plummer already. He is decisive and has a cannon arm. He does not look like a rookie. Although I expect Plummer to hold onto this job this year, I seriously doubt if he is in a Denver uniform in 2007.

I have this strange feeling that Michael Vick is going to show us about the potential we have been talking about for some time now. Without Duckett to score from inside the 3 yard line, I can see Vick scoring a lot of goal line TDs. If he runs for 600 yards and scores 6 TDs running, he can post below-average passing stats and still be among the top fantasy quarterbacks. Again this is just a feeling, but I think it happens this year. This Atlanta defense is much improved. Give Vick the short-field enough and he is going to get his TDs (either by running or getting the ball to Crumpler).

I am calling it now. Eli Manning is going to disappoint everyone who drafts him. He might improve a tad from last year, but he is not going to be worth anything close to his ADP of 55. Plaxico Burress is a tease. Shockey is often injured, and their schedule to start the season is BRUTAL (vs Ind, at Phi, at Sea, vs Was, at Atl, at Dal, vs TB). No way Eli ever gets on track with that schedule. In fact, I am not sure any Giants players are draftable at their ADP this season with that early schedule.

Do you get the feeling that McNabb is extremely motivated to show the world how good he is? I had that feeling after the Rush Limbaugh debacle too and he did just that. He seems like he is on a mission this year to reclaim this team and push the TO discussions into the distant past. I wouldn't bet against him. He likely will cost too much to draft in 12-team leagues, but I do expect him to have a huge season.

David Carr sucks. Wow it felt great saying that. Sure his offensive line is horrible, but he has no sense as to when to throw the ball. He will likely be the starter all year (due to no other options), but mark it down....he will be released after this season.

I will admit that I am amazed to see Daunte Culpepper throwing and running. I still cringe as the hit last year plays back in my head. Not sure what to predict for him as I expected he would be watching on the sidelines on crutches. Something tells me he is going to be the comeback player of the year. I also get this feeling that Chris Chambers is going to work his tail off to get open often after suffering for years with bad QB play.

I think Ben Roethlisberger regresses this year. Maybe it's the accident. Maybe it's the fact that this team needs little from Ben to be competitive. Possibly it's because Hines Ward is nursing a hamdtring still. Willie Parker looks poised to have a big year. And the defense will do enough for the Steelers to be in every game. Ben won't be benched, but when the season ends I think his stats will be way below expectations.

Alex Smith may know football and grade out as a smart player, but I still think he is going to look awful this year. Not 2005 Alex Smith awful, but still very bad. Antonio Bryant would be a great #2 WR on a team. The fact he is the #1 option in the 49ers passing game scares me. The OL is soft too so their all-combine rookie TE Vernon Davis may block more than most expect.

I am getting a very strong vibe that Chris Simms is ready to take his game up a notch. Michael Clayton is healthy again and 2nd-year TE Alex Smith should have an increased role.

Fantasy football is as much about opportunity as it is about skill. No one has more opportunity than Jon Kitna this season. Detroit now has Mike Martz (previous Rams HC) as its Offensive Coordinator. I expect the Lions to throw a lot this season. Jon Kitna should represent outstanding value near his ADP of 134.

I have a horrible feeling about Byron Leftwich this year. Until someone at WR shows me they are capable of big plays like Jimmy Smith was, I am not buying into Leftwich's prospects this season.

Running Backs

Is it just me or are all the RBs dinged going into this season?

Willie Parker looks poised to have a big year. I expect Duce Staley to be cut which opens the door for Parker to also do the goal line work. Verron Haynes will be in the mix for a few carries, but I think the Steelers are looking to give the ball to Parker a lot this year.

Here is my take on the Lundy / Morency situation. Vernand Morency is not a young 2nd-year player. He is already 26 years old having started college late. Why does this matter? Because I belive the Texans want to see what they have in the younger Lundy. Watching the preseason games, I feel Morency is the better blocker and likely better receiver. Lundy hits the hole faster (less dancing), but seems confused on some of the blocking assignments. Since this is the Denver blocking scheme, Lundy is the much better fit to make the one cut before running North/South. So if his blocking becomes at least average, I expect he should hold on to the starting job all season long. Morency looks best suited to become the 3rd down back. I do not believe we will see Domanick Davis at all this year.

I was onboard the Clinton Portis bandwagon prior to the shoulder injury. Now that he is dinged up though, I think he is being drafted too high in most leagues. The coach has said he is OK and will start the opener, but I remain skeptical that we will see an all-out Portis this year. The Redskins brought in TJ Duckett for a third-round pick. Duckett is a monster at the goal line and will likely assume that role to preserve Portis. The team also has Ladell Betts and vowed to get him more involved before the Portis injury. At an ADP of 10, Portis has too many question marks for him to be on any of my teams.

Edgerrin James may be a great runner, but he looks bad running behind a weak offensive line this preseason. At his current ADP of 6, he offers virtually no upside and plenty of downside. Let someone else take James. I think he is the early favorite to be a first-round bust.

It's too bad we all couldn't get Frank Gore before the Barlow trade. His value continues to increase, but I believe it is warranted. With Barlow gone, Gore should get a lot of carries and receptions this year. Even with an ADP of 45, he represents great value this year despite playing for a bad San Francisco team.

De'shaun Foster has looked really good this offseason. He is the clear #1 RB coming out of camp. DeAngelo Williams is likely the future, but I don't believe Williams will get a chance to start UNLESS Foster goes down to injury. Foster comes with an injury history so that is very possible. But I am convinced I see something different in Foster this season. He knows this Carolina team has a great chance to win it all. I believe he has rededicated himself. I also think he could have a break-out season if he stays healthy.

While everyone in the fantasy world seems to think Joseph Addai will be the starting RB this year for the Colts, I seem to stand alone in my opinion that he isn't ready. He looks timid to the hole and seems to go down on first contact. He also seems confused in many blocking assignments. Peyton is the franchise and won't be patient when the RB misses a block that gets him pancaked. Dominic Rhodes looks like a completely different back that I have seen in the past. He is running with attitude. Dominic's opportunity alone justifies his ADP of 68. If he can keep Addai on the bench all year, he could be the most important player uou draft this year.

Michael Turner looks like he could start on a lot of NFL teams. Unfortunately for him he plays behind LaDainian Tomlinson for the Chargers. If there was one guy though that could make a HUGE difference in your fantasy season, it could be Michael Turner. Good players get hurt. I am not saying that Tomlinson will go down to injury, but if he did Turner would be top 5 back immediately. If at all possible, I suggest stashing this guy away on your roster.

Laurence Maroney is better than Corey Dillon today. After a few NFL games, even the biggest Dillon supporters are going to see what we all see. That the New England Patriots are better when Laurence Maroney is in the game. I don't expect Maroney to unseat the veteran in week 1, but I would be shocked if he does not play games 7-16 as the starter. Preseason usually does not mean much, but in this case it was just the stage that Maroney needed to showcase his skills. Dillon is at least a step slow and possible worse.

Everyone knows that I am a huge Reggie Bush homer. But at his current ADP (20), he is a risky pick. I think he will have some HUGE games, but he might disappear in others. I expect him to play better in the last half of the season as he settles into his many roles with this team. My advice is to not draft Bush and look to trade for him after his first sub-par game. If Deuce McAllister misses any games (he is returning from ACL surgery), Bush's value will sky rocket.

Tight Ends

I had Ben Watson as a value pick in April. At that time you could draft him comfortably in rounds 12 or later. After a bunch of great preseason games though, Ben continues to move up the draft boards. I still believe he represents value, but he will be picked at or around the ninth TE. His ADP now places him in the ninth round, but I have seen some drafts where he gets plucked in the seventh. I would target him in the ninth and look elsewhere if he goes much earlier.

Ben Troupe has now moved into the value slot vacated by Ben Watson. Troupe could be in for a big year and is being drafted so late that he has virtually no risk. Another guy that is either going undrafted or in the last rounds is Denver's Tony Sheffler. He has looked fantastic in the preseason. Sharpe was a monster in this offense a few years back so Sheffler could produce if given the chance.

Vernon Davis' combine scores shows he is an incredible athlete. But rookie TEs rarely contribute out of the gate. At his current ADP of 118, I feel Vernon Davis represents all downside. Let someone else grab this guy this season.

Wide Receivers

It took just one preseason game to show me why Donald Driver is going to have a great year. I expect the Green Bay Packers to be playing catch-up football in the second half of a lot of games. And when forced to throw, Brett Favre is going to look to the one person he knows he can trust in this offense - Donald Driver. I won't be shocked to see his name among the WR leaders all season long. At his current ADP of 40, he represnts an anchor at the WR position for a fraction of what the other elite WRs cost.

It was hard not to notice how good TJ was with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball in the third preseason game. Chad Johnson will get the defenses best defensive back every week. TJ Houshmanzadeh, against softer coverage, will likely be the more open receiver nearly every play. Don't be surprised when he actually outperforms the more vocal Chad Johnson on some Sundays. He represents solid value with an ADP of 52.

I have a weird vibe coming out of Pittsburgh this season. I expect the team to be good, but struggle in the passing game. Most of my worries center around Ben Roethlisberger not appearing sharp. Add to that a Hines Ward who has been nursing a sore hamstring all preseason and things might get ugly. Ward may struggle with this hamstring issue all season. It's not a given he will even be able to go for week 1 of the NFL season. I personally would pass on Ward anywhere near his ADP of 32. The Steelers' WR I would look to grab is Cedric Wilson. He came on in the playoffs last year and represents significant value at an ADP of 217. He is a player that is on nearly 100% of my fantasy rosters.

Talk about an unknown commodity. What's the status with Darrell Jackson? No one is questioning the talent level, but wasn't he suppose to be on the field practicing a long time ago? I am not sure what to make of his ADP at 41. It seems about right if he is good to go in the season opener. But if my draft happened today (without the benefit of more news), I think I would pass on Jackson. His knee problems could linger all year.

I have moved Terrell Owens down my draft board this year. I am not that worried about the media circus going on right this minute. What I am worried about is that without practicing with the first unit I suspect there will be timing issues between Bledsoe and TO. This is a new team with different plays, etc. History shows us that WRs changing teams usually struggle in their new environment. I was willing to make TO an exception of this rule in April. But after a preseason where TO has rarely seen the field, I think it costs him production this season.

Eddie Kennison makes my always under-valued players. Both he and Samie Parker are after-thoughts in drafts across the country. I have Kennison on nearly every team I have this year. He is not flashy, but at the end of the year he always has better stats than his ADP. Samie Parker, playing opposite of Kennison, could be one of the steals of this draft as his ADP of 179 is laughable. Trent Green has passed for 4,000 yards three straight years. Someone is going to catch the ball other than Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez. Make sure you grab at least one of these players for your fantasy roster.

Koren Robinson was set to be WR1 for the Vikings before getting a DUI (while in the drug program). He has now been released by the Vikings clearly the way for both Troy Williamson and Travis Taylor thius season. Both will get the opportunity to be the main man in the Minnesota passing game. My money is on Williamson to emerge as the better player. Relatively unknown after a minimal rookie season, Williamson has looked good this preseason. At an ADP of 123, Williamson represents virtually no downside but tremendous upside.

I think people are over-reacting to the news that Donte Stallworth is no longer a Saint. Joe Horn is rising up draft boards since he is the only real option at WR for New Orleans. But with Stallworth's departure, Horn now will always see the double-team and the better defensive backs each week. At his age, I am not sure that will lead to a great season. I will be interested to see how this plays out, but I suspect someone else emerges from the Saints and that Horn just puts up modest stats.

Defenses

Cross the Chicago Bears defense off of your cheatsheet this year. If you end up with them, I am going to go out on a limb and say you will not win your fantasy league this season. I am a believer that this unit is very good too. But the reason I do not like them this year is I have no confidence that the offense can stay on the field. The passing game is a train wreck. I believe Grossman will be a bust and Griese will eventually be the starting QB. This unfortunately won't happen for a few weeks though as Lovie seems entrenched to give Grossman a shot. The running game is also a mess. Cedric Benson is hurt and Thomas Jones, although back on the field, has failed to do anything to convince us he is ready for a good season while Benson heals. Add in the stories that a lot of the Bears' teammates don't like Benson and this thing looks like it can (and will) get ugly. So when the offense struggles, this will keep the defense on the field too long. And it's for that reason (not talent on defense) that I believe the Bears defense regresses. Anywhere near their ADP of 79, this is likely the worst pick in your draft this season.