Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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Rookie 100 rank in parenthesis - ratings are constantly in flux and have changed since this was written. Quarterback
The Gameplan Using rookie picks on QBs takes patience. First you have to wait for them to start, then you have wait for them to hit their stride and actually become startable fantasy QBs. This tends to devalue QBs as rookie picks. Less heralded QBs with a good chance of becoming their team's QB of the future slip too far every year. They make good shark picks once all the marquee names are gone. You have to commit a roster spot for multiple years to get the value out of a late round QB. Good fantasy QBs have emerged from this group (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger), but most of them never even get to the see the field. Don't take a late round QB unless you are willing to hold them for two years. Using them as a hedge because you own the "QB of the future" for their team is an exception to this rule. There are usually decent "project" #3 QBs on the waiver wire, so you can always grab developmental QBs without using a rookie pick. This Year Anyone in the market for a franchise QB should gun for a pick in the 7-8 range, with 8 being the best pick to acquire. Vince Young and Matt Leinart both present QB1 potential, and I think Young could be a top 5 fantasy QB. Vince will likely be one of the top 2 or 3 rushing QBs in the NFL and Leinart will inherit with the best young WR tandem in the league. The #7 and #8 picks could be an easy quarry if their owners are set at QB - the pick value seems to go off a cliff if you wanted an RB. Jay Cutler is a fine pick around #10, but he doesn't have quite the fantasy upside of Leinart or Young. The other good place to be is in the early 30s. Tarvaris Jackson is very likely to be there, and Brodie Croyle and Kellen Clemens are also candidates to slide to that range. Jackson and Clemens could see action in the late season a la Charlie Frye, greatly enhancing their value. These QBs are especially good targets in 16+ team leagues, where QBs become much scarcer. Bruce Gradkowski is a solid use of a pick in the 40s if you own Chris Simms, and Ingle Martin and Charlie Whitehurst are worthy picks in the 50s if you own Aaron Rodgers or Philip Rivers. Target them if you are especially skeptical of the starter. Gradkowski is an interesting gamble because of the Jon Gruden effect on QBs, and his Jeff Garcia/Rich Gannon style is promising for fantasy. Omar Jacobs may have the most upside of any of the bottom tier QBs talent-wise, but he is stuck behind Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. Running Back
The Gameplan RBs can experience the biggest explosions in value and they are at the best position to get immediate production if they are called upon. RB is already the premium position in fantasy football, and the premium is only inflated in rookie drafts. The top of the first is almost always saturated with RBs. Later in the draft, RBs with less chance of success get picked next to WRs, QBs, TEs, and LBs with much greater chances of becoming entrenched starters. Injuries can cause mediocre RBs to emerge from obscurity and create great sell high opportunities, so even the #3 RB on the depth chart can be worth carrying in deep leagues. The rookie draft and trades is really the only way to build your RB corps. There is much less depth at RB on the waiver wire than at other positions. You can generally find out pretty quickly whether a long shot RB is worth stashing based on their training camp and how the depth chart shakes out. They are worth drafting because you can usually turn them into an equivalent prospect at another position on the waiver wire - getting the QB, WR, or LB for free that you passed on to get the RB prospect in the rookie draft if the RB doesn't pan out. This Year Anyone sitting at 2, 3, or 4 should try to trade up to #1. The #1 is obviously worth more than it has been worth in years. It probably costs too much to get into the top 4 picks if you're not already in there. Reggie Bush is the consensus #1, as he should be. Laurence Maroney is a value after pick 2, because he's almost a lock to start in 2007. DeAngelo Williams is a value after pick 3. LenDale White is my fourth ranked player, but I do not necessarily think he will ultimately be the 4th best player from this draft - he might be an instant sell high candidate if you can package him to get a more established RB. My ranking of Joseph Addai basically amounts to a "do not draft" because he's likely to go higher than 8th. Some folks are mightily overvaluing Addai, so you could always test the trade value waters if you're sitting at 5 and Addai is still on the board, especially if the trade partner is sitting at 6, 7, or 8. If you're holding a pick in the early second, you can be assured of getting one of three interesting second tier RBs. Jerious Norwood presents value in the late first, simply because he's directly in line to inherit the Atlanta job. Unproven RBs who spent the offseason as assumed starters can make huge leaps in value (see: Chester Taylor). Norwood will be a sought after player once Dunn leaves Atlanta, which could be next offseason Don't hesitate to trade up to snag Norwood once you get into the 2nd round of your rookie draft. Even if you can't move up, he could fall into your lap if you are sitting in the late teens or early twenties. Maurice Jones-Drew is going right about where an intriguing gamble should - in the early 2nd, but Brian Calhoun is falling into the 20s in some drafts - too far. They are boom/bust picks and you must eschew safer picks at other positions to get them, but they are both talented backs whose value could explode if they get an opportunity. Jerome Harrison is slightly overvalued, going ahead of 4 or 5 safer players at other positions in a lot of drafts. He's quick, but not big or a burner, and I'm not sure that he'll get a shot to be a feature back - still a good gamble in the 3rd round, but not much earlier. Leon Washington is going too early in most leagues - he's the RB most likely to go 10-20 picks before I would even consider him. He's a good role player, but that's all - a role player. There are some decent gambles to take in 4th or later, including three who are interesting simply because of the instability in their team's RB picture - Wali Lundy (HOU), Mike Bell (DEN), and Cedric Humes (PIT). Wide Receiver
The Gameplan The WR position has recently experienced an emergence in importance as more and more phenoms are coming into the league ready to make an impact. Marquee rookie WRs are breaking the top 20-25 WR from the moment of their arrival. They go off the board right after the elite rookie RBs. The second tier WRs generally present value in the teens and twenties as teams start to take the riskier RBs and solid IDPs. After the second tier, the position becomes more of a crapshoot. Gems can be found in the late rounds, or even among the WRs that go undrafted in rookie drafts. Late round and UDFA WRs can develop in anonymity, and QB to WR converts bear special watching. WR gambles in the late rounds aren't as attractive as other positions. Like QB, you generally have to wait 2 years to see what you have in a player, and that's a long time to clog up a roster spot for a long shot player. You will find talented rookie WRs available up to the end of your rookie draft, and even as free agents after the draft. Many of the WRs drafted late in your rookie draft will not survive final cuts to fantasy roster maximums when the season begins. Always watch the jockeying on the lower part of the depth chart and be ready to act during the year if injuries give a young obscure WR an opportunity. This is just as good an avenue for developing your WRs as the rookie draft. This Year 2006's class lacks the heralded early first round picks that have gone in the mid first round of rookie drafts the last few years. There could be no real difference makers at WR in this year's draft. Some of the WRs are good candidates to become dependable #2's , but it's hard to find top 20 upside. There's a group of interesting talents available in the 3rd, and many talented WRs will be available until the end of your rookie draft. Chad Jackson and Santonio Holmes are the class of this weak WR group. They will cost a late first. Both came out as juniors, and will require patience. Both have good long term situations, but Jackson's has more upside if Deion Branch leaves next year in free agency. The real value comes in the early twenties, where Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall can be had relatively cheap. This could be changing as positive news from training camp begins to ripple through the fantasy world. Both seem on track to get shots at the long term #2 job on their teams. Jennings is the safer pick, but Marshall has more upside. Either is fine return on a mid to late second round pick. If you want either, think about trading up once the draft hits pick 20. Derek Hagan, Demetrius Williams, Maurice Stovall, and Travis Wilson should all be available in the 3rd round of your rookie draft. All of them had at least flashes of brilliance in college. Everyone except Williams has a clear shot to become their team's #2 in the next few years, but Williams explosive talent keeps him in this group. Wilson is the clear value of the group, being ranked significantly lower than the other three in the FBG rookie rankings. Deciding between this group of WRs and the 2nd tier LBs/1st tier safeties should be based on the need of your particular team. The rest of the WRs are all long shots and lottery tickets. Everyone has their favorite. I like the steady if unspectacular Mike Hass because of how unsettled the WR position is long term in New Orleans. Brad Smith is my favorite QB to WR convert with his open field running ability. The late draft was a bloodbath for WRs, as many judged as mid round picks in some circles ending up plummeting to the late rounds or even out of the draft. The late round sleepers are worth drafting if you have a good feeling about them, but they will take an investment of time and a long term roster spot if you are to reap any benefit from them. Tight End
The Gameplan The position as a whole is undervalued in fantasy football. Rookie drafts are no exception. The supremely talented TE occasionally surfaces that is a worth a first round pick. What many dynasty players fail to notice is that the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the NFL draft also yield solid fantasy TEs - making them values in rookie drafts. Top quality fantasy TEs do not come out of the late rounds, with the glaring exception of Antonio Gates. They are not a good position to target for late round flier picks in rookie drafts unless their main skill in college was receiving. TE is not an easy position to build on the waiver wire, and usually presents value in rookie drafts, so they are often the best picks in the 2nd and 3rd round. They can easily be exchanged for solid LBs or quality WR prospects if they fulfill their promise as future starters. This Year Vernon Davis is a prospect on a par with Kellen Winslow and Jeremy Shockey at the time they were drafted. The glut of top RB prospects is allowing him to last to at least pick 5, with Joseph Addai and the elite rookie QBs sometimes jumping ahead of him. He's a great value in the 6-8 range in TE required leagues. He should be a much more coveted player in leagues with a TE premium, and is worth trading up for if he falls past the 5th pick, even if you're set at TE. Davis will make great trade bait once he breaks out. The 2nd tier of TEs is also full of value. Marcedes Lewis could end up being the most dependable receiver for Byron Leftwich - yet he's likely to be available in the early 2nd round. He's already got the value of a Heath Miller or Alex Smith. Joe Klopfenstein is likely to be available in the mid 20s. If you get Klopfenstein, consider Dominique Byrd in the late 30s. Both are decent receiving talents, and Scott Linehan likes to use the TE. One should emerge as a quality target for Marc Bulger. Tony Scheffler is a value in the mid 20s, as the Broncos are likely to give him an audition for the starting TE job once he's ready. He's raw, but could be an instant top 15 TE as a starter for the Broncos. Leonard Pope is going earlier than Scheffler and Klopfenstein, but he's got the least desirable situation and some bust risk. The New England TEs are interesting late gambles with Daniel Graham likely leaving soon. Dave Thomas has been impressive thus far, and Garrett Mills was a receiving machine in college. The downside to these guys is that Ben Watson is clearly the future at TE there. Defensive End
The Gameplan There are rare defensive ends with the athleticism to have top 5-10 upside. They generally go in the second round. Generally, the rest of the top DE's don't start coming off the board until after pick 50, when all the viable options at positions with higher upsides are gone. Top flight DEs are good late picks for you if you don't play with roster spots and value safe bets. They have a decent shot at being one of your top three DEs in 1-2 years, and a better chance of success than the players at other positions going around the same time. DEs do clog up a roster spot and can be a burden. I generally only carry 3 DEs and use as many roster spots as possible for offensive and LB fliers. That developmental DE may force you to carry a 4th DE for a while for injury/bye week concerns, and not give you the flexibility to pick up an emerging DE from the waiver wire . All defensive positions can restocked through astute waiver wire pickups. Carrying DEs as developmental players comes with a cost of the lower upside of the position. They only have good trade value if they are elite. Starting quality DEs are not as expensive in trades as offensive or LB starters, which also de-emphasizes the position. This Year Mario Williams has a chance to be a dominant DEs for a long time. He is not lasting past the 2nd round, and sometimes does not make it out of the top 20. You probably need a pick around 15 or 16 to be assured of landing him. His raw talent makes him worth a pick that high, but not a steal compared to the offensive players and LBs available around that pick. Mathias Kiwanuka, Tamba Hali, and Darryl Tapp are all decent picks in the 50s if you want to carry a developmental DE. Hali has the clearest road to start, but Kiwanuka may have more upside as a sack artist. Defensive Tackle
The Gameplan I can't imagine spending a pick on a DT unless they had freakish athletic ability. Only the top 3-5 in the NFL have considerable value. I don't carry a backup DT except during my starter's bye week. I would not recommend drafting Brodrick Bunkley except as a last round pick. Claude Wroten should go undrafted in rookie drafts. Watch him closely in camp and be ready to pick him up if he starts and puts up numbers early. Linebacker
The Gameplan Linebackers have the most upside of any defensive position. A good MLB or WLB can carry as much value as a starting fantasy TE or WR. Value is transitory - LBs can be studs for stretches of a season, only to fade into obscurity. Studs can come from the obscure ranks. There is value to be had in rookie drafts at the LB position. LBs that are almost guaranteed studs still end up lasting to the 2nd round. LBs that have a very good chance to being fantasy starters for most of their career last into the 20s and 30s. It's good to carry a few developmental LBs. The LBs available on the waiver wire match the rookie LBs in quality once you get into the 3rd tier - after the 50th pick - so it's not that important to stock up on fliers. When you do take LBs in the late rounds, target those with immediate opportunity. A position battle can be a good yardstick for a player's true value, and give you the info you need to release the pick and cut bait, or stash the late round steal on your roster. The waiver wire is just as good as the rookie draft for building your LB corps - in the short term with injury replacements, and in the long term because forgotten prospects are usually available. Don't be afraid to cut an LB loose if their career starts to get stalled. This Year A.J. Hawk is an LB1 in the making, and Ernie Sims fantasy potential is not far off of Hawk's. Both will cost you an early second round pick (Hawk maybe a late first). Chad Greenway is going a shade after that dynamic duo, but does not present the value that the 4th and 5th ranked LBs do. D'Qwell Jackson and DeMeco Ryans have good shots at winning high tackle positions soon, and come cheaper than Greenway. They both have just as much upside as Greenway, but tend to go 5-15 picks later. Abdul Hodge tops the 2nd tier as a developmental MLB who may push Nick Barnett to the strong side. His fantasy upside as an LB is considerable and he's coming much cheaper than the LBs who will start right away. Some of the other LBs going in the 40s have limited upside because they are 3-4 OLBs, but they are quality picks because they have the ability to be bye week/injury filler immediately, especially in leagues that weight sacks. Kamerion Wimbley in particular is slipping too far in rookie drafts. There is a plethora of developmental LBs available in the later rounds of your rookie draft. Some have better opportunity, some have better talent. James Anderson and Clint Ingram are competing for jobs now, so they could take an early leap in value. Most of the sleeper LBs will require being carried at least a year to get any return on investment, and that could clog up a roster spot - making you miss an opportunity to get a waiver wire wonder. There are some late round fliers worth taking as handcuffs to productive veterans - Omar Gaither to Jeremiah Trotter, Tim Dobbins to Donnie Edwards, and Jamar Williams to Lance Briggs. Safety
The Gameplan Safety carries roughly the same weight as DE in IDP dynasty leagues. Only the top 15-20 have lasting value, and to have trade value on a par with decent offensive players, a safety truly has to establish himself as part of the elite. Troy Polamalu and Roy Williams have hit the big time pretty quickly - making the marquee safety in the draft a player that goes off the board in the 20s when they are a high first round pick. There is value to be mined at safety in the 2nd tier rookies - those that went later in the first round or on the first day. Additionally, some of the safeties that go undrafted in rookie drafts end up being viable fantasy starters. It's good to have a roster spot or two dedicated to talented safeties waiting for opportunity or safeties getting action because of injuries. Rookie safeties that were picked on the second day such as Gibril Wilson and Kerry Rhodes have gained value almost immediately - watch those camp battles and injury situations closely. The best rookie safety you get this year may not be someone you draft. Like the rest of IDP positions, you have to be ready to move fast when opportunity knocks. This Year Michael Huff went in the top 10 and is getting a lot of attention in rookie drafts. He's got the skills to be an elite fantasy DB, but he could also be used a lot in coverage. He will still be a startable safety once he's a first teamer for Oakland, but his upside is not considerably higher than safeties going 10 picks later. Donte Whitner and Bernard Pollard are better values in the mid to late 30s, and both could start and contribute to your team as soon as this season. Jason Allen is the last first tier safety, but like Huff, his coverage skills could cap his fantasy potential. The second tier of safeties is full of players in good situations for playing time in the future. Most of them will be battling veterans in precarious spots- vets that are likely just keeping the spot warm for them. Roman Harper is the best value pick, as the strong safety position should open up for him soon in New Orleans. He should definitely be available in the 50s. Some safeties that are going undrafted have just as much opportunity as the 2nd tier safeties. Watch guys like Dawan Landry and Nate Salley, as the players ahead of them are not entrenched. Cornerback
The Gameplan Like DT, I just don't believe in using rookie picks on CBs. There are always
quality CBs on the waiver wire. Sometimes talent works against a CB for fantasy
because QBs won't throw at them. There are a few big, physical CBs in this year's
draft class, but they are likely going higher than you should take them. You're
better off scouring the waiver wire for startable CBs if you are in need. I
don't recommend carrying more than three CBs, and I only carry 2 when my starters
are completely healthy. |
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