Anyway, I figured I should stop conjecturing and look at the data. I went back and looked at the numbers for the top 20 fantasy tight ends in each year since 1990. I then added in the fantasy ranking and output of the WR1 and WR2 for each of those tight ends. So what were the results? And more importantly, what are my conclusions?

Not so fast. Let's look first at recent history. One thing I noticed last year that jumped out at me was that Terrell Owens played the first seven games before being suspended by the Eagles. Owens definitely qualifies as a superstar, so what better example is there of how a tight end performs with and without a star WR playing with them? LJ Smith would be the test subject here. Smith clearly had his best numbers in the first half of the season, so that might indicate that a TE is actually better with a star WR, but this theory was shot down as Donovan McNabb played only the first nine games. Mike McMahon (and a little Koy Detmer) stepped in and Smith was no longer the same. Regardless, with TO in the lineup, LJ Smith proved to be a success. Is this more of an exception to the rule?

Before moving forward, I decided to focus on tight ends that produced at least 90 points or more, as that would place the tight end in about the top 15% of the last 16 years.

Looking more into the top TEs for last year, I saw Santana Moss have success alongside Chris Cooley. The Santana Moss / Chris Cooley grouping is a good example of a top scoring WR having a top scoring TE alongside him. What's important to note there, though, is that after Moss, there was virtually no other WR on the Redskins with any kind of production. With 22/217/0, David Patten was the next highest scoring WR.

Looking at 2004, there was a clear separation between the top eight TEs and the rest of the field. And amongst those top eight TEs, all scoring 90 points or more, there was not a single top 15 WR on any of their teams. OK, now maybe we're getting somewhere. How about 2003? There were only two tight ends with 90+ points and neither had a top 23 WR playing alongside them. Maybe the pattern is becoming clearer. However, in 2002, the top four TEs saw two top ten WRs in the group. One team in this example was the Giants with Jeremy Shockey and Amani Toomer. Looking up at my 2005 Redskin example involving Moss and Cooley, and you see again that the Giants lacked a viable WR2 threat. Ike Hilliard was second best for team that year with 27/386/2.

So at this point, starting from recent history and looking backward, I got the feeling that it is a rare occurrence that a top scoring TE has a top scoring WR alongside him, and in those few circumstances when that happens, you can usually see a blatantly unproductive WR2 on the team. As we go back a little further, let's see if this continues to hold true.

In 2001, there were a couple top scoring TEs who had a top ten WR. TE Desmond Clark and WR Rod Smith both did well for Denver, but after Smith, Denver had no other receiver with more than 170 receiving yards. Similarly, the Colts had Marvin Harrison and Marcus Pollard, but they did not have another WR in the top 70. Once again, when there was a top ten WR, the WR2 was extremely unproductive.

As I continued to look back at the numbers, I found exceptions to the rule, such as the 1999 Carolina Panthers who had two top scoring WRs in Patrick Jeffers and Muhsin Muhammad, as well as a top TE in Wesley Walls, but for the most part you see that the chances of having a top TE along with a top WR are rare.

Of the TEs scoring 90 or more points going back to 1990, totaling 72 players, 19 of them had a top ten scoring WR on the same team (26.4%). Of those 19 examples, 11 did not have a WR2 in the top 50. So since 1990 only 8 times ( 11.1%) did a tight end have 90 or more fantasy points with a top ten scoring WR1 AND a WR2 in the top 50. And of those 72 TEs that had 90 points or more, 19 of them did not have a WR that scored in the top 40, which means that it is just as likely that a top TE has a WR1 after the top 40 as in the top 10.

So what are my conclusions at the end of the day? Some of this comes down to common sense. Teams only have so many receptions to go around and if the WRs take up too many of them, there aren't many left for the tight end. Also, if the TE happens to be the best receiving threat, it shouldn't be a shock to see them get the most action. And some offenses just are not built around getting the TE the ball. But what I'm trying to do here is help you understand which tight ends might jump up and surprise for 2006.

Sure we know that it's rare for a top TE to be on the same team as a top WR. Didn't we already figure as much? What about 2006? Let's take a closer look.

When searching for possible TE sleeper candidates, toss out teams that have a pair of productive WRs. Although exceptions have occurred, it's very rare. In the last 16 years, only eight TEs have scored more than 90 points with two top 25 WRs, and only 20 have done it with two top 40 WRs. There goes Leonard Pope's chances for Arizona. You can probably toss out the Rams Klopfenstein/Byrd duo as well. Same goes for Carolina's Kris Mangum (in case you are waiting to jump on him).

What I'd look for is a decent looking offense, or at least one that you don't believe will be terrible, that doesn't have a lot of options at WR and only one option at TE. Look for a TE that at least has a reputation for solid hands and some open field moves.

Those I find intriguing? One of the most intriguing sleeper candidates is Marcedes Lewis with Jacksonville. He seems to fit all the necessary qualifications for a sleeper. Decent enough offense? Check. And a healthy Leftwich entering his fourth year on a team that could have some success is a great start. Lack of top notch WRs? Check. Matt Jones is lacking in experience and Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams are not making people forget about Boldin and Fitzgerald. Lewis has the speed and athleticism to surprise. He might be the best receiver of the tight end rookie class. Not many TEs have tremendous success their rookie year, but Lewis has all the earmarks of a potential breakout.

Another guy to look at is Kellen Winslow. Although their starting QB is raw and they had a recent significant loss on the offensive line, Winslow could still surprise people. He has as much talent as any other TE on a team without top WR options, especially until Braylon Edwards gets up to speed.

Also, don't forget about Alex Smith for Tampa Bay. Joey Galloway will be 35 soon and Michael Clayton is trying to rebound from his disastrous sophomore effort. Smith has great hands and mobility and had a good rookie season. There's also Pittsburgh's Heath Miller. Although Pittsburgh loves to run the ball, Hines Ward's receptions and receiving yards have dropped for the last three years and Randle-El is no longer on the team. Miller could be the recipient of extra attention from Roethlisberger. Even Desmond Clark for the Bears could have a bit of a comeback if Rex Grossman can stay healthy, as there has been some indications that the Bears might throw more to their tight ends.

The top five or six TEs in this year's draft are just about a lock to include Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler and Jason Witten. There could be a surprise here and there, but those guys will be drafted ahead of every other TE in the vast majority of drafts. But if you don't get one of those guys, can you pick up the late sleeper to make up for it?